17 April

1. Tuesday, April 17th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK

We are starting the day with UK CPI. There are three different numbers. There is the month over month CPI, there is the year over year CPI, and there is the core CPI. I believe that the most important number that most traders and economists will be focusing on is the CPI headline year over year number, which is expected at around 2.8%, same as it was last month. If for some reason the number comes out at 3.1% or higher, it would set a new high in many years, and a possibility of a rate hike out of UK will probalby be considered imminent, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the CPI reads at 2.4% or lower, it would be a huge drop, and most would probably assume that the Bank of England will have to think twice before hiking the rate anytime soon, so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 80 pips or more in the first hour. The size of the move will also largely depend on the levels that the GBP/USD is at before the reading. If the price is too close to the dreaded 2.00 level, it may very well bounce off of it, and the move may be muted. I am personally going to be using less conservative triggers than these, and you are welcome to do so too, just consider that the lesser the trigger, the smaller the move will probably be.

2. Tuesday, April 17th, 2007 (5:00 am New York Time) GERMANY

Then we have German ZEW report coming out, which is expected at around 10.0 on the economic sentiment side. Big deviations on this report are extremely rare, and even when they happen, the move on the EUR/USD is not that big. So if the number comes out at 30.0 or higher, it would not only be the strongest reading in over 6 months, but also a huge shock, so EUR/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the number comes out at -10 or more negative, it would also be a shock, because out of all the economists' opinions that I looked at, and it was close to 50, not one is expecting a negative reading. So with a reading of -10 or more negative, EUR/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more.

3. Tuesday, April 17th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA

Then we have CPI report coming out of the US. We have quite a few numbers, but the most important one will probably be month over month core CPI, which is expected at 0.2%. A reading of 0.4% or higher, would be the highest reading since November of 2001, and would mean that inflation is getting out of control, so US may think twice before cutting rates, so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the reading comes out flat, meaning 0%, it would be the first flat reading since June of 2005, and would mean that inflation is really subsiding, so US will most likely cut the rate, in order to help the housing market recover, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 70 pips or more. The move and the sentiment of this report may largely depend on the UK CPI that's coming out few hours earlier, so trading this report may be a bit different than normal, especially if we have something extremely surprising come out of UK. We also do have housing starts and building permits coming out at the same time, though I think if anything, a conflicting number on those may simply provide a great retracement entry opportunity, especially if my CPI triggers are hit. I may also trade with smaller triggers on this one, depending on where the price is at before the report, and how the UK CPI reacted.

4. Tuesday, April 17th, 2007 (9:15 am New York Time) USA

Then we have Industrial Production coming out of the US, which is expected to come out flat at 0%. The way to trade this report, will largely depend on what the CPI will do, so I won't comment further on it.