16 April

1. Monday, April 16th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA

We have retail sales less autos coming out of the US that are expected to rebound by many economists to about 0.9%. Remember, we have two types of retail sales. We have the retail sales less autos, and the regular retail sales. My focus will be on the Retail Sales less autos. If they come out at 0.0% or negative for the 2nd month in a row, it wouldn't be too good for the US dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly go up short term by 50 pips or more in the first 30 minutes (depending on the price levels before the report). If the retail sales less autos come out at 2.0% or higher, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Again, watching price levels before the report may be crucial. Just like a short on GBP/USD may be short lived, because of extreme bullishness in the pair, the long on GBP/USD may also be muted and short lived, due to heavy offers at 1.9900. So it all depends on where the price is at, and what price levels are breached during the London session.

2. Monday, April 16th, 2007 (9:00 am New York Time) USA

Then we have TIC report coming out of the US. This report has turned from a beautiful indicator that mattered quite a bit over a year ago, into a red haired step child that nobody cares about. Poor step child by the way... Bottom line is, I don't even want to talk about the TIC. Depending on where the retail sales come out, I may use the TIC as either a catalyst or an opportunity to get on a retracement, if the TIC is conflicting. But since I don't know what the retail sales will be, I can't really tell you what I am going to do with the TIC yet, because I dont know myself