12 April

1. Thursday, April 12th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK Trade Balance coming out of the UK, which is expected to come out at around -6.4 billion. More negative number may have a negative effect on the pound, so GBP/USD may possibly go down short term. Less negative number may have a positive effect on the pound, so GBP/USD may possibly go up short term. If the trade balance reads at -8.2 billion or more negative, it would be the most negative reading in many years, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or so in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the trade balance reads at -5.0 billion or more positive, that would be an extremely positive reading, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or so in the first 30 minutes of the report. Obviously you can use less conservative triggers to trade this one. The smaller the triggers, the smaller the move that may happen.

2. Thursday, April 12th, 2007 (7:45 am New York Time) E-12

Then we have Euro Zone, scheduled to release their interest rate statement. They are expecting to leave the rate unchanged at 3.75%. If for some reason there is a hike to 4.0%, EUR/USD may possibly go up by 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Cut is nearly impossible, so I wouldn't even look for it. Hike is almost extremely unlikely, euro zone is known to be extremely predictable with their interest rates. There have never been any surprises with them, at least as far as my memory goes.

3. Thursday, April 12th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) E-12

Then we have Trichet speaking, giving accompanying comments to the interest rate statement. If you have little experience trading, then skip this one. The move will depend on what he says, but basically if he is hinting towards more hikes in the near future, EUR/USD may possibly go up, and if he is hinting towards no hikes, and stresses that they need to see how the economy is performing, EUR/USD may possibly go down.

4. Thursday, April 12th, 2007 (6:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND

Then we have New Zealand coming out with their retail sales numbers, that are roughly expected at 0.5%. A reading of -0.5% or more negative will signify the lowest reading March of 2006, and NZD/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the reading is at 1.5% or higher, it would probably be good for the New Zealand dollar, and NZD/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. You can of course use less conservative triggers, and expect smaller moves as always.